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miete ("thought") + lause ("phrase")
count: 11
filter: author = Peter L. Bernstein clear
Nobody takes a risk on the expectation that it will fail.
page: 12
tags:
risk
Many irreversible decisions must be made on the basis of incomplete information, and once we act, we forfeit the option of waiting until new information comes along. Not acting has value. The more uncertain the outcome, the greater may be the value of procrastination.
page: 15
tags:
action
decisions
A penny saved is not a penny earned unless the future is something more than a black hole.
page: 18
tags:
prediction
The successful business executive is a forecaster first; purchasing, producing, marketing, pricing, and organizing all follow.
page: 22
tags:
prediction
"Decision theory is the theory of deciding what to do when it is uncertain what will happen."
page: 69
tags:
ian hacking
Fear of harm ought to be proportional not merely to the gravity of the harm, but also to the probability of the event.
page: 99
tags:
fear
probability
Any decision relating to risk involves two distinct yet inseparable elements: the objective facts and a subjective view about the desirability of what is to be gained, or lost, by the decision. Both objective measurement and subjective degrees of belief are essential; neither is sufficient by itself.
page: 100
tags:
risk
decisions
The value of our expectation always signifies something in the middle between the best we can hope for and the worst we can fear.
page: 103
tags:
fear
expectation
The utility resulting from any small increase in wealth will be inversely proportionate to the quantity of goods previously possessed.
page: 105
tags:
utility
gain
Today, we view the idea of human capital--the sum of education, natural talent, training, and experience that comprise the wellspring of future earning flows--as fundamental to the understanding of major shifts in the global economy.
page: 110
tags:
human capital
Utility is inversely proportionate to the quantity of goods possessed. The utility gain of wealth increase will be less than the utility loss of a wealth decrease of the same amount.
page: 112
tags:
utility